In phase 3, can Muslim major constituencies defines the victory of elections?

India is voting for Phase III of Lok Sabha elections 2019. In this phase, major constituencies are going to vote for the future of India. In these elections, there are two most important issues which are going to influence the voter’s behavior, first is Rahul Gandhi’s two seats and Muslim vote weight.

Today, two high profile constituencies are voting, Wayanad and Assam’s Dhubri. Today, 30 out of 115 Lok Sabha seats have a significant Muslim population across Assam, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Gujrat, and West Bengal.

There are only 15 Muslim-majority constituencies where BJP has fielded 6 Muslim candidates (2 more than 2014) and Congress fielded 9 candidates (3 more than 2014).

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Assam’s Dhubri has 67.4% and Barpeta, Gauhati has 52% and 25% respectively, Kerala’s Malappuram has 68% with Wayanad have 56% Muslim population.

Wayanad’s fight is more interesting because of the 56% Muslim population, Hindu 34%, and Christian 9 %. In Kerala, 11 out of 20 constituencies have more than 1/3 Muslim population.

Rahul Gandhi chooses Wayanad as a 2nd constituency for contesting the election.

There is a possible assumption about Rahul Gandhi’s choice for Wayanad is that he had chosen Muslim majority constituency as the Congress party had decided that securing a victory in Muslim dominated constituency would be much easier than in Hindu majority constituency.


West Bengal has 4 out of 5 constituencies with the Muslim majority. Malda Uttar constituency has Muslim population is 49.73 %, Malda Dakshin 53.4% with Jangipur which is a major constituency has 63.67% and Murshidabad has 58.31%.

Abhijit Mukherjee, son of former President Pranab Mukherjee is fighting from the prominent Jangipur constituency where Muslims form two-thirds of the voters.


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